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Posted: Sat Dec 06, 2014 5:13 pm Post subject: Master of the Flow
How does Master of the Flow work, exactly?
Quote:
"This status gives all attacks made against the Eternal Soldier a flat 20% chance to miss."
Does this mean, all attacks in general, or just the ones that would have hit?
Does it stack with defense? Does it work against pets?
if my ES has 38% defense from skills/items/whatever and then stacks Flow what's the interaction? Wording's kind of unclear, kind of wondering if it's actually nerfing my dodge down to 20% from 38% by making it a hard cap "all attacks miss at 20%"
[Edit] I'm just going to use this thread to log test results til a dev weighs in I guess
Test summary so far:
Test 1:
6/93 attacks should hit [~6.5%]
15/93 attacks actually hit [~16.1%]
Test 2:
8/130 attacks should hit [~6.2%]
23/130 attacks actually hit [~17.7%]
Last edited by hellowhatsgoingon on Sat Dec 06, 2014 9:01 pm; edited 2 times in total
Joined: Jan 20, 2010 Posts: 391 Location: Marrakun
Posted: Sat Dec 06, 2014 5:19 pm Post subject:
I think it rolls before it's determined if the attack hits or misses. So it goes:
You attack.
20% chance attack will miss.
Attack doesn't miss? OK, subtract defense from attacker's to-hit, roll actual attack.
In other words, if someone with an 85% to-hit attacks you 5 times, they'll miss once, and then have a 47% chance to hit with each of the remaining 4 attacks (hitting, on average, 1.88 times... 1.88/5 = 37.6% to-hit averaged across the 5 attacks)
It's actually a very useful skill, because it hurts most attackers that have the highest to-hit.
And it affects pets, too. All attacks. I'm not sure if it applies to auto-hit spells. I think it does. _________________ Vile Brimstone: The Original Stone/Invisible VW
Meatbag the Mime: Meaty Mime of Death
Mephistopholes: Next Door Tea Drinker
Zaradiel: Looking for his umlauts
Adjatha: Finally, BEER in the Nexus!
Jabril: Stabbing & smithing
hm. So:
I'm standing out in a forest, getting attacked by wandering zombies. Flow is activated = 20% chance attack will miss, 80% chance attack will land; in 93 attacks:
(0.8)93 = 74.4 attacks don't miss
Zombies have 45% to hit, I have 38% defense = zombies have a 7% chance to hit me
(0.07)74.4 = 5.208 attacks hit me
Hypothetically speaking, out of 93 attacks, ~5-6 attacks should be hitting me if I've got 38% innate defense and have activated Master of the Flow, then? So I think I ran the numbers right
Quote:
! (5 times) Shambling Zombie attacked you and missed! (2014-12-06 23:57:52).
! Shambling Zombie attacked you and hit for 2 points of impact damage. (2014-12-06 23:57:42).
! Shambling Zombie attacked you and missed! (2014-12-06 23:57:32).
! Shambling Zombie attacked you and hit for 2 points of impact damage. (2014-12-06 23:57:31).
! (6 times) Shambling Zombie attacked you and missed! (2014-12-06 23:57:01).
! Shambling Zombie attacked you and hit for 2 points of impact damage. (2014-12-06 23:56:52).
! Shambling Zombie attacked you and missed! (2014-12-06 23:56:52).
! Shambling Zombie attacked you and hit for 2 points of impact damage. (2014-12-06 23:56:42).
! Shambling Zombie attacked you and missed! (2014-12-06 23:56:42).
! Shambling Zombie attacked you and hit for 2 points of impact damage. (2014-12-06 23:56:32).
! (5 times) Shambling Zombie attacked you and missed! (2014-12-06 23:55:52).
! Shambling Zombie attacked you and hit for 2 points of impact damage. (2014-12-06 23:55:42).
! (25 times) Shambling Zombie attacked you and missed! (2014-12-06 23:51:32).
! Shambling Zombie attacked you and hit for 2 points of impact damage. (2014-12-06 23:51:22).
! Shambling Zombie attacked you and missed! (2014-12-06 23:51:12).
! Shambling Zombie attacked you and hit for 2 points of impact damage. (2014-12-06 23:51:02).
! (14 times) Shambling Zombie attacked you and missed! (2014-12-06 23:15:42).
! Shambling Zombie attacked you and hit for 2 points of impact damage. (2014-12-06 23:15:32).
! (3 times) Shambling Zombie attacked you and missed! (2014-12-06 23:15:03).
! (3 times) Shambling Zombie attacked you and hit for 2 points of impact damage. (2014-12-06 23:14:32).
! (6 times) Shambling Zombie attacked you and missed! (2014-12-06 23:13:32).
! (2 times) Shambling Zombie attacked you and hit for 2 points of impact damage. (2014-12-06 23:13:12).
! (10 times) Shambling Zombie attacked you and missed! (2014-12-06 23:11:32).
! Shambling Zombie attacked you and hit for 2 points of impact damage. (2014-12-06 23:11:22).
but here, 15/93 attacks hit me in under an hour. Not promising Guess I'll hang out in the forests and collect more data for now
lel this is a terrible skill or it doesn't work this way, or it's not working the way it's supposed to
attacked 130 times by wandering zombies
theoretically:
130 attacks x(0.8) = 104 attacks hit
45-38 = 7% chance to hit
104x(0.07) = 7.28
>Theoretically: in 130 attacks, ~7-8 attacks should hit [~6.15%]
>in Practice: in 130 attacks, 23 attacks hit [~17.7%]
Quote:
You sense the accuracy enchantment (3 bonus) effect on your Firemans Jacket dissipate. (2014-12-07 02:29:12).
- You feel the effects of Master of the Flow fade. (2014-12-07 02:29:12).
! Shambling Zombie attacked you and hit for 2 points of impact damage. This was enough to kill you! (2014-12-07 02:29:12).
! Shambling Zombie attacked you and hit for 2 points of impact damage. (2014-12-07 02:29:02).
! Shambling Zombie attacked you and missed! (2014-12-07 02:28:51).
! Shambling Zombie attacked you and hit for 2 points of impact damage. (2014-12-07 02:28:41).
! (8 times) Shambling Zombie attacked you and missed! (2014-12-07 01:47:01).
! Shambling Zombie attacked you and hit for 2 points of impact damage. (2014-12-07 01:46:52).
! (11 times) Shambling Zombie attacked you and missed! (2014-12-07 01:45:42).
! Shambling Zombie attacked you and hit for 2 points of impact damage. (2014-12-07 01:45:32).
! Shambling Zombie attacked you and missed! (2014-12-07 01:45:32).
! (2 times) Shambling Zombie attacked you and hit for 2 points of impact damage. (2014-12-07 01:45:22).
! (2 times) Shambling Zombie attacked you and missed! (2014-12-07 01:45:12).
! Shambling Zombie attacked you and hit for 2 points of impact damage. (2014-12-07 01:45:02).
! (18 times) Shambling Zombie attacked you and missed! (2014-12-07 01:43:32).
! Shambling Zombie attacked you and hit for 2 points of impact damage. (2014-12-07 01:43:32).
! (8 times) Shambling Zombie attacked you and missed! (2014-12-07 01:42:51).
! Shambling Zombie attacked you and hit for 2 points of impact damage. (2014-12-07 01:42:41).
! (11 times) Shambling Zombie attacked you and missed! (2014-12-07 01:41:42).
! Shambling Zombie attacked you and hit for 2 points of impact damage. (2014-12-07 01:41:32).
! (9 times) Shambling Zombie attacked you and missed! (2014-12-07 01:31:12).
! Shambling Zombie attacked you and hit for 2 points of impact damage. (2014-12-07 01:31:02).
! (6 times) Shambling Zombie attacked you and missed! (2014-12-07 01:30:02).
! Shambling Zombie attacked you and hit for 2 points of impact damage. (2014-12-07 01:29:52).
! Shambling Zombie attacked you and missed! (2014-12-07 01:29:42).
! Shambling Zombie attacked you and hit for 2 points of impact damage. (2014-12-07 01:29:31).
! (9 times) Shambling Zombie attacked you and missed! (2014-12-07 01:28:02).
! Shambling Zombie attacked you and hit for 2 points of impact damage. (2014-12-07 01:27:52).
! (7 times) Shambling Zombie attacked you and missed! (2014-12-07 01:26:41).
! Shambling Zombie attacked you and hit for 2 points of impact damage. (2014-12-07 01:26:32).
! Shambling Zombie attacked you and missed! (2014-12-07 01:26:22).
! (2 times) Shambling Zombie attacked you and hit for 2 points of impact damage. (2014-12-07 01:26:02).
! Shambling Zombie attacked you and missed! (2014-12-07 00:48:22).
! Shambling Zombie attacked you and hit for 2 points of impact damage. (2014-12-07 00:48:12).
! (2 times) Shambling Zombie attacked you and missed! (2014-12-07 00:47:52).
! Shambling Zombie attacked you and hit for 2 points of impact damage. (2014-12-07 00:47:42).
! (5 times) Shambling Zombie attacked you and missed! (2014-12-07 00:46:52).
! Shambling Zombie attacked you and hit for 2 points of impact damage. (2014-12-07 00:46:42).
! (3 times) Shambling Zombie attacked you and missed! (2014-12-07 00:46:12).
! (2 times) Shambling Zombie attacked you and hit for 2 points of impact damage. (2014-12-07 00:45:52).
! (3 times) Shambling Zombie attacked you and missed! (2014-12-07 00:45:22).
I believe Shambling Zombies have a 75% chance to hit, or in that range.
Shambling Zombies are not the same as a Lich's pet Zombie.
Master of the Flow is a wonderful skill, with a specific role.
20% flat miss chance means that if a normal attack roll succeeds (not sure on order, but the end result is the same) then there is a further and flat 20% chance that the attack will miss.
This means that the flat-miss chance is more effective against autohits (20% of them miss, as opposed to 1% without) and other attacks with high accuracy (examples: Maeval, active and accuracy buffed combat classes, etc.)
However, when paired with dodge against attacks, it's a separate defence and not as efficient (but still better than without).
Example: 40% dodge against 50% to-hit is 10% accuracy, and 20% of those attacks will miss due to master of the flow for an equivalent of 8% (I believe?) accuracy. (2% dodge increase)
Actually, I should summarise it with eloquence:
The higher adversarial accuracy, the more effectively Flow Mastery performs; from 1% up to 20% increase in dodging whilst other defences falter. _________________ aav-ann
attacked 130 times by wandering zombies
theoretically:
130 attacks x(0.8) = 104 attacks hit
45-38 = 7% chance to hit
104x(0.07) = 7.28
>Theoretically: in 130 attacks, ~7-8 attacks should hit [~6.15%]
>in Practice: in 130 attacks, 23 attacks hit [~17.7%]
*Uses new figures to throw numbers together*
Attacked 130 times by wandering zombies
theoretically:
130 attacks x(0.8) = 104 attacks hit
65-38 = 27% chance to hit
104x(0.27) = 28ish
>Theoretically: in 130 attacks, ~28 attacks should hit [~21%]
>in Practice: in 130 attacks, 23 attacks hit [~17.7%]
Close enough. I think. I'll edit this post with stats once I brush up on my stats.
EDIT: standard deviation is square root of the variance.
Variance of the binomial distribution is (sample size) * (outcome probability) * (1 - outcome probability).
Sample size: 130
Outcome probability: 0.216
Variance is therefore 22.015, standard deviation is 4.7ish
The mean outcome is 28ish and the standard deviation is 5ish. 23 hits is therefore close to one standard deviation from the mean. Seems reasonable - P~0.3
EDIT: oooh, you've got more data. Let's throw it all together.
There were 93 attacks in the first trial and 130 in the second.
Sample size: 223
Outcome probability: 0.216
Mean: 48ish
Variance: (sample size) * (outcome probability) * (1 - outcome probability) = (223) * (0.216) * (0.784) ~ 37.8
Standard deviation: 6.15ish
You got 15 hits in the first one and 23 hits in the second, for a total of 38 hits.
Mean is 48ish, standard deviation is ~6.15, so you're about 1.6 standard deviations from the mean. P is around about 0.1, perhaps a hair above that.
You've got very limited evidence against the null hypothesis being true.
It seems that the skill is working as intended, as is the RNG. This all assumes completely unbiased sampling (hell no - I included your first data points). Note that my grasp of statistics is tenuous, so I might be a little bit off target.
EDIT: We can, with great conviction, reject the hypothesis that Master of the Flow doesn't work at all. The probability of a hit would be 27%, the mean would be 60, variance of ~44, standard deviation of ~6.6. 38 hits is therefore more than 3 standard deviations away from the expected mean, and our P value is 0.01. _________________ |The Devil On Your Shoulder 4407 | Mira Lasan 1724 | Officer Horwood 1763 | A Ghast 5143 | A Velociraptor 3721 | Father Christmas 3115 |
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