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First, when did we come to the conclusion that I'm the minion? Username can't be the Insomniac, but he can't be the minion either. Aidan might not be werewolf, but then it's between Pikanchion and Whyte. Assuming a possibility turns out to be false, then it branches into more possibilities, which can't be accounted for because we don't know enough roles, even with the claims. They could be true, they could be false, and some are unclaimed.
I am going to try asking a simple question here.
What do you think Username's role is, if he is neither Insomniac nor Minion? _________________ For the Kin!
And Aidan does appear to be a safe lynch, but if the coin flip shows him as a townie, I don't think this is going to end well. So far, it's either Aidan is the werewolf or Aidan isn't. If he is, gg. If he isn't, that would branch into Pikanchion or Whytemeet being the werewolf.
Let's say I am the minion. If I were, I wouldn't gamble 50/50 to win the game or end up losing it by voting up Aidan. If I were the minion, I wouldn't be so stupid as to go all in this early in the game. Experience with mafia sided vanillas who can't meet or vote to kill would give me an advantage as minion.
Now let's say I am not the minion. I could be the Insomniac, just as I said I was, or I could be a townie claiming to protect power roles. I could be a werewolf making a ballsy claim. I could be something completely different. You have my word and my word alone that it's the first case, but the second would definitely fit my style of play.
Too many possibilities, and I don't know if it's better to cross the bridges when we get there or just bull through them all. So far, Aidan decides the game, but he sure as hell isn't a kingmaker. _________________
First, when did we come to the conclusion that I'm the minion? Username can't be the Insomniac, but he can't be the minion either. Aidan might not be werewolf, but then it's between Pikanchion and Whyte. Assuming a possibility turns out to be false, then it branches into more possibilities, which can't be accounted for because we don't know enough roles, even with the claims. They could be true, they could be false, and some are unclaimed.
I am going to try asking a simple question here.
What do you think Username's role is, if he is neither Insomniac nor Minion?
If he isn't the Insomniac or the Minion, he's a Villager or Werewolf. _________________
Our Insomniac could have been changed into a wolf and is pretending to be unchanged. _________________ He-Man{6080} Spawn{6093} The Man In Black{6108} Michael Myers{6199} Alucard{6278} Whytemeet{6837} Nico Bolas{6980} The Dark One{7146} Batman{7310} Dralnu{7671} Yoda{9448} The Question{9618}
Joined: Oct 12, 2015 Posts: 1085 Location: The United States of America
Posted: Tue Nov 10, 2015 9:50 am Post subject:
BlackHeartKabal wrote:
First, when did we come to the conclusion that I'm the minion? Username can't be the Insomniac, but he can't be the minion either. Aidan might not be werewolf, but then it's between Pikanchion and Whyte. Assuming a possibility turns out to be false, then it branches into more possibilities, which can't be accounted for because we don't know enough roles, even with the claims. They could be true, they could be false, and some are unclaimed.
At this point, I'd say BHK is just trying to sow dissent between us, making him even more suspicious then before. I can only assume that this is a last-ditch effort to get town to mislynch. Being new to forum maf (although experienced in maf games), I don't know all that many people's scum strategies, but it's blatantly obvious that he's trying to confuse town. I say we put 4 on Aidan and 4 on BHK.
Our Insomniac could have been changed into a wolf and is pretending to be unchanged.
If you remember, Alpha is placeholder and neither insomnia claim was visited by anyone, let alone town.
I'm not sure how insomniacs work, can they be turned into placeholders?
Considering they act last, there would have been either 1 or 2 wolf placeholders. _________________ He-Man{6080} Spawn{6093} The Man In Black{6108} Michael Myers{6199} Alucard{6278} Whytemeet{6837} Nico Bolas{6980} The Dark One{7146} Batman{7310} Dralnu{7671} Yoda{9448} The Question{9618}
We have to assume that Pending and BHK are not a villager/insomniac combination, nor is the WW position in there. They can only be one minion and one insomniac.
We also have to assume because of this that neither the minion nor the insomniac positions are one of the placeholders that Aiden could have grabbed.
Were left with the following:
Aiden is a WW, BHK is Minion, Pending is Insomniac
Aiden is WW, BHK is Insomniac, Pending is Minion
Aiden is Villager, BHK is Minion, Pending is Insomniac
Aiden is Villager, BHK is Insomniac, Pending is Minion
In the first two cases, voting for Aiden is a win, while voting for either BHK or Pending results in a loss (even if we did get the minion)
In the last two cases, voting for Aiden is a loss, while voting for BHK in case 3 is a win, and voting for pending in case 4 is a win.
If in fact either BHK or Insomniac is a villager, that means a Minion could be amongst us. If that were the case, and one of the swaps did not go through, this still gives Aiden a 50/50 chance of being a WW, which is a win. If a Minion is the placeholder that Aiden gets, well, it might be a loss if there is still a Mystic WW amongst us.
First, when did we come to the conclusion that I'm the minion? Username can't be the Insomniac, but he can't be the minion either. Aidan might not be werewolf, but then it's between Pikanchion and Whyte. Assuming a possibility turns out to be false, then it branches into more possibilities, which can't be accounted for because we don't know enough roles, even with the claims. They could be true, they could be false, and some are unclaimed.
At this point, I'd say BHK is just trying to sow dissent between us, making him even more suspicious then before. I can only assume that this is a last-ditch effort to get town to mislynch. Being new to forum maf (although experienced in maf games), I don't know all that many people's scum strategies, but it's blatantly obvious that he's trying to confuse town. I say we put 4 on Aidan and 4 on BHK.
I'm pointing out possibilities, not trying to change who gets lynched. You really think that if I were against the town I'd make such a move and compromise myself with such little chance of changing things? You really think I'm not insomniac? Your play doesn't make sense. I don't think that you could be Minion, but you play like I'd expect one to be. It's very likely a minion exists, so you would be the minion? But you couldn't be. It doesn't make sense to me in this situation. As much as I loathe having the game decided by probability, we have to do so, and it's between me, you, and Aiden. I and only myself currently can confirm myself as an Insomniac, but I know it's true, because I am. Meaning two of Wozzy's speculations above are possible. So that means you MUST be the minion. It's surprising. But Aidan still decides, doesn't he? He could be the WW or Villager. But something isn't right. I'm missing something. _________________
First, when did we come to the conclusion that I'm the minion? Username can't be the Insomniac, but he can't be the minion either. Aidan might not be werewolf, but then it's between Pikanchion and Whyte. Assuming a possibility turns out to be false, then it branches into more possibilities, which can't be accounted for because we don't know enough roles, even with the claims. They could be true, they could be false, and some are unclaimed.
At this point, I'd say BHK is just trying to sow dissent between us, making him even more suspicious then before. I can only assume that this is a last-ditch effort to get town to mislynch. Being new to forum maf (although experienced in maf games), I don't know all that many people's scum strategies, but it's blatantly obvious that he's trying to confuse town. I say we put 4 on Aidan and 4 on BHK.
I'm pointing out possibilities, not trying to change who gets lynched. You really think that if I were against the town I'd make such a move and compromise myself with such little chance of changing things? You really think I'm not insomniac? Your play doesn't make sense. I don't think that you could be Minion, but you play like I'd expect one to be. It's very likely a minion exists, so you would be the minion? But you couldn't be. It doesn't make sense to me in this situation. As much as I loathe having the game decided by probability, we have to do so, and it's between me, you, and Aiden. I and only myself currently can confirm myself as an Insomniac, but I know it's true, because I am. Meaning two of Wozzy's speculations above are possible. So that means you MUST be the minion. It's surprising. But Aidan still decides, doesn't he? He could be the WW or Villager. But something isn't right. I'm missing something.
Putting 4 on each the only way for the minion to win and disrupt our voting, especially if we put 4 on the wrong minion.
I really thought BHK was the minion until this. Well played UNP, well played. _________________ He-Man{6080} Spawn{6093} The Man In Black{6108} Michael Myers{6199} Alucard{6278} Whytemeet{6837} Nico Bolas{6980} The Dark One{7146} Batman{7310} Dralnu{7671} Yoda{9448} The Question{9618}
First, when did we come to the conclusion that I'm the minion? Username can't be the Insomniac, but he can't be the minion either. Aidan might not be werewolf, but then it's between Pikanchion and Whyte. Assuming a possibility turns out to be false, then it branches into more possibilities, which can't be accounted for because we don't know enough roles, even with the claims. They could be true, they could be false, and some are unclaimed.
At this point, I'd say BHK is just trying to sow dissent between us, making him even more suspicious then before. I can only assume that this is a last-ditch effort to get town to mislynch. Being new to forum maf (although experienced in maf games), I don't know all that many people's scum strategies, but it's blatantly obvious that he's trying to confuse town. I say we put 4 on Aidan and 4 on BHK.
See, you put 4 votes on BHK, 4 votes on Aidan, and then uncle BHK votes Aidan so you might as well have voted Aidan to start with.
In other words, the only probabilistic approach I see remotely working is this:
1) Everyone flips a coin
2) If heads, they vote Aidan. If tails, they vote BHK.
3) One previously designated guy does not vote anyone AKA votes NL.
4) This gives us 3.5 votes on each of Aidan and BHK, but that's not possible. Of the likely splits, no one will know which is most likely, so the minion would be effed if they voted Aidan, but also effed if they didn't vote Aidan.
This is the only system in which a 4:4 tie between the two suspects is even possible. _________________ For the Kin!
First, when did we come to the conclusion that I'm the minion? Username can't be the Insomniac, but he can't be the minion either. Aidan might not be werewolf, but then it's between Pikanchion and Whyte. Assuming a possibility turns out to be false, then it branches into more possibilities, which can't be accounted for because we don't know enough roles, even with the claims. They could be true, they could be false, and some are unclaimed.
At this point, I'd say BHK is just trying to sow dissent between us, making him even more suspicious then before. I can only assume that this is a last-ditch effort to get town to mislynch. Being new to forum maf (although experienced in maf games), I don't know all that many people's scum strategies, but it's blatantly obvious that he's trying to confuse town. I say we put 4 on Aidan and 4 on BHK.
See, you put 4 votes on BHK, 4 votes on Aidan, and then uncle BHK votes Aidan so you might as well have voted Aidan to start with.
In other words, the only probabilistic approach I see remotely working is this:
1) Everyone flips a coin
2) If heads, they vote Aidan. If tails, they vote BHK.
3) One previously designated guy does not vote anyone AKA votes NL.
4) This gives us 3.5 votes on each of Aidan and BHK, but that's not possible. Of the likely splits, no one will know which is most likely, so the minion would be effed if they voted Aidan, but also effed if they didn't vote Aidan.
This is the only system in which a 4:4 tie between the two suspects is even possible.
If I'm reading this correctly, you're saying that the Minion would lose if you were lynched. So you're just claiming werewolf, or..? _________________
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