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If I'm reading this correctly, you're saying that the Minion would lose if you were lynched. So you're just claiming werewolf, or..?
Magical recital of innocence is useless since I AM the town Drunk, I DID switch with a placeholder which has a 50% chance of being a wolf, and I have NO idea what my current role is.
So looking at it, if I am lynched, the Minion has a 50% chance to lose, yes. _________________ For the Kin!
1. Yes he was the first to claim minion, before he claimed though, he "soft claimed"
UsernamePending wrote:
Good morning everyone! I hope you all got some good sleep. Sadly, I was up all night thanks to someone telling me about werewolves in the town. Shocked Gladly, nobody came and did anything to me, so it's all good! Very Happy
Had the actual Insomniac come out at this point, he could have dismissed this as joking around. Also, several of us actually missed this claim.
2. He was okay with putting 4 votes on BHK and 4 on Aidan (the only way for him to win if Aidan is a wolf).
Short list, I only have 2 reasons :p _________________ He-Man{6080} Spawn{6093} The Man In Black{6108} Michael Myers{6199} Alucard{6278} Whytemeet{6837} Nico Bolas{6980} The Dark One{7146} Batman{7310} Dralnu{7671} Yoda{9448} The Question{9618}
I guess, even if Aidan is wolf he would just toss an extra vote on BHK and the town will all lose. _________________ He-Man{6080} Spawn{6093} The Man In Black{6108} Michael Myers{6199} Alucard{6278} Whytemeet{6837} Nico Bolas{6980} The Dark One{7146} Batman{7310} Dralnu{7671} Yoda{9448} The Question{9618}
1. Yes he was the first to claim minion, before he claimed though, he "soft claimed"
UsernamePending wrote:
Good morning everyone! I hope you all got some good sleep. Sadly, I was up all night thanks to someone telling me about werewolves in the town. Shocked Gladly, nobody came and did anything to me, so it's all good! Very Happy
Had the actual Insomniac come out at this point, he could have dismissed this as joking around. Also, several of us actually missed this claim.
2. He was okay with putting 4 votes on BHK and 4 on Aidan (the only way for him to win if Aidan is a wolf).
Short list, I only have 2 reasons :p
For the first, I will say that you have a fair point.
For the second, I don't think he can improve his chances beyond 50% anymore, but yes, I understand why he wouldn't necessarily have figured that out.
I am usually wary of people who claim first, but in this case, you have to remember that whoever the minion was, he knew you were the wolf, and so knew that getting lynched would be preferably to getting YOU lynched. You were in a somewhat tight spot after counterclaiming Seer, so BHK appeared to have jumped the gun and roleclaimed at random in order to attract attention.
Will think of what you said, though. Unvote BHK _________________ For the Kin!
Joined: Oct 12, 2015 Posts: 1085 Location: The United States of America
Posted: Tue Nov 10, 2015 11:05 am Post subject:
If it makes town feel better, we could *officially* vote Aidan with all our people (50% win) like we originally planned, or I could be one of the 4 that is planned from the start to vote BHK, preventing me from swaying vote negatively.
I don't really want to get in on the BHK/Pending discussion, because no matter of we are 100% certain of which one is a Minion, it's still a 50% chance to lose, for both sides.
Joined: Oct 12, 2015 Posts: 1085 Location: The United States of America
Posted: Tue Nov 10, 2015 11:23 am Post subject:
Whytemeet wrote:
UNP is the minion.
1. Yes he was the first to claim minion, before he claimed though, he "soft claimed"
UsernamePending wrote:
Good morning everyone! I hope you all got some good sleep. Sadly, I was up all night thanks to someone telling me about werewolves in the town. Shocked Gladly, nobody came and did anything to me, so it's all good! Very Happy
Had the actual Insomniac come out at this point, he could have dismissed this as joking around. Also, several of us actually missed this claim.
2. He was okay with putting 4 votes on BHK and 4 on Aidan (the only way for him to win if Aidan is a wolf).
Short list, I only have 2 reasons :p
If I were to include a softclaim in a post and people were to notice it after I were to claim another role, that'd immediately screw me... if I was scum. I softclaimed hoping to oust someone going for the easy and hard-to-prove role. Of course, my chances as insom got utterly screwed after NOBODY visited me or claims to have visited BHK. I openly claim insomniac from the start and am only looked upon negatively.
I see only one way of proving myself. Tompaa, is it possible for my character to commit suicide?
Joined: Oct 12, 2015 Posts: 1085 Location: The United States of America
Posted: Tue Nov 10, 2015 11:31 am Post subject:
Wozzy wrote:
UsernamePending wrote:
I see only one way of proving myself. Tompaa, is it possible for my character to commit suicide?
hwat
I know that this seems ridiculous, but it's done all the time in other maf games (albeit they are leavers), but I see this as a way to help town vote correctly. I have no extra help for town in any way, because scum at most have 2 votes, one who has no idea they are scum.
I think the mass-roleclaim-from-start is a pointless trap at this stage. Too many unknowns and too many possible shifts making most of these claims void anyway.
All I can tell from the information I have is that Whytemeet is indeed lying. There are several hypotheses on why he would lie; he could be a Mystic Wolf as suggested, but he could also simply be a minion trying to draw attention onto him, in which case it would still mean that there are werewolves around. So the only conclusion at this level is that there are indeed werewolves.
I am also suspicious of Usernamepending, I find it highly unlikely for them to be what they claim under the current circumstances.
Can Sparky comment on why he thought UsernamePending's claim was suspicious? _________________ He-Man{6080} Spawn{6093} The Man In Black{6108} Michael Myers{6199} Alucard{6278} Whytemeet{6837} Nico Bolas{6980} The Dark One{7146} Batman{7310} Dralnu{7671} Yoda{9448} The Question{9618}
I think the mass-roleclaim-from-start is a pointless trap at this stage. Too many unknowns and too many possible shifts making most of these claims void anyway.
All I can tell from the information I have is that Whytemeet is indeed lying. There are several hypotheses on why he would lie; he could be a Mystic Wolf as suggested, but he could also simply be a minion trying to draw attention onto him, in which case it would still mean that there are werewolves around. So the only conclusion at this level is that there are indeed werewolves.
I am also suspicious of Usernamepending, I find it highly unlikely for them to be what they claim under the current circumstances.
Can Sparky comment on why he thought UsernamePending's claim was suspicious?
2 reasons:
1st: unchanged insomniac was pretty unlikely, to begin.
2nd: Lagn claiming Seer could have meant he had been the insomniac and thus knew I had turned him into a Seer.
Both these doubts have been cleared out, I believe. _________________ With me, always.
Joined: Oct 12, 2015 Posts: 1085 Location: The United States of America
Posted: Tue Nov 10, 2015 1:24 pm Post subject:
Just a heads up: I might not be here for voting phase (I'm still living with my parents, I'm a freshman in high school, my stuff gets taken away, ETC...) and have sent my vote in ahead of time, just in case. Just before voting phase, if town has decided on a strategy, if I can, I will edit my vote or tell you who I voted.
If I'm reading this correctly, you're saying that the Minion would lose if you were lynched. So you're just claiming werewolf, or..?
Magical recital of innocence is useless since I AM the town Drunk, I DID switch with a placeholder which has a 50% chance of being a wolf, and I have NO idea what my current role is.
So looking at it, if I am lynched, the Minion has a 50% chance to lose, yes.
I don't see how just because you randomly switched with someone that makes it 50/50. That's not how probability works. But still, this game is hinging on you. Amazing. I understand now.
[quote="Quixotic"]
Quote:
2 reasons:
1st: unchanged insomniac was pretty unlikely, to begin.
2nd: Lagn claiming Seer could have meant he had been the insomniac and thus knew I had turned him into a Seer.
Both these doubts have been cleared out, I believe.
Yes. Nevermind the fact that the first thing I did after watching everyone speak was counterclaim UsernamePending's false claim. Which was Insomniac.
As in, me. _________________
There is literally no reason for a minion to claim. They win if no werewolves are lynched, which is the werewolf win condition. They are for all intents and purposes a werewolf that doesn't know of their partners. They are meant to work with werewolves, they share a win condition with the werewolves, they ARE werewolves. WHY would a minion claim unless they knew for a fact they were going to lose and wanted to play kingmaker? _________________
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